中文摘要：

藥物濫用是全球的主要健康和社會問題。然而，國內針對一、二級毒品施用
者其生涯發展軌跡著墨不多，若能掌握藥物濫用族群間異質性差異，就能有效預
測和預防藥物濫用行為，降低毒品施用者再犯的風險。
本研究期待透過群組化軌跡模式來建構毒品施用者生涯軌跡，作為預測再犯
風險評估模型。同時比較不同軌跡毒品施用者的特性差異，進而探究影響毒品施
用者再犯的因子。
本研究採生命歷程觀點，以縱貫性資料回溯性分析方式進行研究，研究對象
為北部某矯正機關受監禁一、二級男性毒品施用者，以在2003年至2005年期間初
犯328人之官方已去識別化數據資料為研究樣本，分析該樣本至2018年年底資料。
本研究以SAS統計軟體進行數據資料分析，採用群族化軌跡模式、描述性統計、
變異數分析、羅吉斯迴歸及存活分析等統計方法。
本研究發現毒品施用者可以分為三類，分別為成人早期起始型（Early
Adulthood Onset, EAO）、成人期起始型（Adulthood Onset, AO）和成人中期起始
型（Middle Adulthood Onset, MAO），每個類型所占比例依序分別為62.25%成
人早期起始型，27.4%成人期起始型及10.35%成人中期起始型。有近75%毒品施
用者教育程度在國中（含）以下，且會影響其社經地位，特別是對EAO和MAO影
響較大。三組被監禁時間以MAO最短，其次為AO，EAO被監禁時間最長，而監
禁後至再次被監禁期間三組間並無顯著性差異。毒品施用者每監禁1次，再犯風
險會增加1.29倍，表達出獄後有主要問題者，再犯風險會增加1.7倍，但因好奇觸
法，其再犯風險會減少68%。此外，研究亦發現毒品施用者呈現犯罪專門化之傾
向。

英文摘要：

Background:
Drug abuse is a major global health and social issue. However, it still lacks the
trajectories research of first and second-degree drug abusers in Taiwan. If
heterogeneity between different drug abuser groups can be founded, drug abuse
behaviors can be effectively predicted and prevented, and the risk of recidivism of
drug abusers can be reduced.
Objective:
This study constructed a trajectory of drug abusers by group-based trajectory
modeling to predict recidivism risk. In addition, this study compared different
characteristics among drug abusers across trajectories, and further investigate the
factors that influence recidivism among drug abusers.
Research Method:
This study adopted a retrospective analysis of longitudinal data with life course
perspective. The study population was male incarcerated by criminal possession of a
controlled substance in first and second degree at correction institute in northern
Taiwan. The official de-identified data of 328 first-time offenders between 2003 and
2005 were used by this study. The data of this sample were analyzed from 2003 to
2018. Group-based trajectory modeling, descriptive statistics, analysis of variance,
logistic regression, and survival analysis were used to analyze the data by SAS
statistical software.
Result:
This study found that drug abusers could be divided into three categories, which were
62.25% Early Adulthood Onset (EAO), 27.4% Adulthood Onset (AO), and 10.35%
Middle Adulthood Onset (MAO). Almost 75% of drug abusers' education level were
below high school. Their socioeconomic status would be affected by drug use,
especially for EAO and MAO. The incarceration lengths from short to long were
MAO, AO, and EAO. The period from the release to re-incarceration was no
significant difference between the three groups. Every time a drug user be
incarcerated, his recidivism risk would be increased by 1.29 times. Recidivism risk
would be increased by 1.7 times for those who expected having life troubles after
release. For those who violated the law due to curiosity, recidivism risk would be
decreased 68%. Drug abusers had a crime specialization tendency.

文章連結：

https://hdl.handle.net/11296/gry4r5

資料來源：

臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統