中文摘要：

本研究之主要目的，在於透過長期定群追蹤資料，比較605位受觀察勒戒人離所後9年內(2009年至2018年)中止/持續施用毒品情形，並以統計方法分析篩選中止/持續施用毒品之影響與預測因子。
研究結果發現：(1)持續施用毒品者，超過50%於離所後1年內再施用毒品，其再施用次數與人數呈現反比趨勢。(2)男性再施用毒品風險高，平均較女性提早10.29個月再犯，但於再施用次數上則無顯著差異，再犯類型係以施用毒品且結合他罪為多。(3)年齡效應明顯，初次施用毒品為未成年者，未來再施用毒品風險較高，隨年齡增長再施用毒品比例也跟著降低。(4)低自我控制傾向愈強者，持續施用毒品機率愈高。(5)學校偏差行為是持續施用毒品者重要預測指標之一，對學校依附較強和教育程度較高者，其中止施用毒品成功比例較高。(6)成年非正式社會控制對中止/持續施用毒會發生影響；用毒前後仍維持家庭依附者，其中止施用毒品的可能性較高，而用毒後工作所受影響越大者，其持續施用毒品的風險也越高。(7) 持續施用毒品者其遊樂生活型態偏好以施用毒品為主，同儕對毒品施用者具重要意義，與用毒同儕接觸可以影響個人用毒機率與次數。(8)毒品經驗與中止/持續施用毒品有關，尤其是施用一二級毒品經驗會提高再犯風險。(9)用毒後持續施用毒品者憂鬱傾向明顯增加。
二元邏輯斯迴歸與存活分析結果顯示：(1)在中止/持續施用毒品部分，性別、低自我控制、逃學次數、施用一二級毒品數量等四項因子為預測中止/持續毒品之主要因子，而教育程度、家庭依附、偏差同儕等三項因子為次要因子。(2)在未再施用毒品時距部分，性別、逃學次數、施用一二級毒品頻率和數量等四項因子為主要預測因子，而教育程度、低自我控制、學習狀況、家庭依附、偏差同儕等五項為次要預測因子。最後，研究者依研究發現檢驗若干犯罪學理論，探討其對於觀察勒戒人相關處遇與再犯預防之意義。

英文摘要：

The main purpose of this study is to compare the termination and persistence of drug uses of 605 people under observation and abstention after 9 years of leaving (from 2009 to 2018) through long-term group tracking. And finds out the impacts and prediction factors of the termination and persistence of taking drugs through statistical analysis.
The study finds out that: (1) More than 50% of persistent drug users who leave prisons within 1 year continue taking drugs, and the number of repetitive drug uses shows an inverse trend with the number of people. (2) The risk of repetitive drug uses for men is higher than those for women by 10.29 months. There is no significant difference in the number of repetitive drug uses. The recidivism type of drug uses is mostly combined with other crimes. (3) The age effect is obvious. The initial drug use is underage, and the risk of drug use in the future is higher. The proportion of drug use decreases with age. (4) The stronger the low self-control tendency, the higher the probability of persistent drug use. (5) School deviation behavior is one of the predictive indicators of persistent drug users. Those with stronger school attachment and higher education level have a higher rate in terminating drug use. (6) Adult informal social control has an impact on the termination and persistence of drug uses. Those who maintain family attachment before and after drug use have greater possibility of terminating drug use and those who are more affected by work after drug use have higher risks of persistent drug use. (7) The preferable recreational life style of persistent drug use is mainly drug use. Peers are of great significance to drug users and contacts with drug peers affects the probability and frequency of personal drug use. (8) Drug experience is related to the termination and persistence of drug uses and increase the risk of recidivism, especially the use of class 1 and 2 drugs. (9) The depression tendency of persistent drugs users has increased significantly after taking drugs, and sleep problems are the most serious cause.
The results of binary logistic regression and survival analysis show that: (1)Gender, low self-control, frequency of truancy, and number of using class 1 and 2 drug are the main factors for predicting termination and persistence of drug uses. While the education level, family attachment, and peer deviation are secondary factors. (2)As the time interval of non-recidivism, gender, frequency of truancy, frequency and number of using class 1 and 2 drugs are the main predictors. While the education level, low self-control, school attachment, family attachment, and deviation peers are secondary predictors. Finally, the study can examine criminology theory according to the research findings, and further observation of the related treatments and prevention of recidivism of people under observation and abstention.

文章連結：

https://hdl.handle.net/11296/429578

資料來源：

臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統