中文摘要

犯罪熱區分析之目的在於找出「區域內之某個地方具有相對顯著的犯罪風險聚集趨勢」，故應瞭解其犯罪的空間型態、其案件地點是否呈現顯著地群集及其發生頻率及強度等關係。近年來伴隨著地理資訊系統(geographic information system, GIS)技術興起、地理資訊大量積累，以地理資訊技術爲基礎之空間分析與製圖方法所產出之犯罪主題地圖(thematic mapping)，在犯罪預防評估與政策上，逐漸成爲重要的分析項目。由於犯罪製圖與熱區分析方法係針對於社會環境中，分析犯罪個案的時間、空間與相關環境間相互影響，可提供警政單位瞭解其犯罪行爲與公共安全在地理空間上的分佈與過程。本文從犯罪預防實務觀點，研究重心聚焦於GIS技術與熱區分析方法針對犯罪群聚偵測之趨勢與重要性，並以1998-2007年台北市住宅竊盜爲案例研究，分析結果發現台北市中正、大安與松山一帶爲主要住宅竊盜刑案熱區，但其群聚強度在近五年(2002~2007)已經趨緩，然而信義、南港及士林一帶卻逐漸興起成爲新的住宅竊盜群聚。本研究透過犯罪地圖繪製及熱區分析方法，找出具顯著性的犯罪地理群聚及變遷現象，以期該結果能協助警政單位制訂犯罪治安之改善策略。

English Abstract

The purpose of crime mapping and hotspot analysis is attempted to identifying the areas of concentrated crime events. Therefore, understanding spatial patterns of crime, including the frequency and intensity of crime hotspots is essential to crime prevention and intervention. Recently, new mapping technologies-geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial database systems make it possible to visualize and analyze a great quantity of crime events in time and space. Nowadays, crime mapping has already been an important task for crime analysis. This article introduced the common-used methods of GIS and geospatial analysis in crime mapping and hotspot analysis. We then applied these geospatial analysis methods to identify the spatial-temporal patterns and hotspots of residential burglaries in 1998-2007, Taipei City as an example to illustrate the capacities and effectiveness of GIS in crime mapping and analysis for further improvement of public safety.

資料來源：https://goo.gl/u2a1X1